The Spy's peerless political prognosticator handicaps the 2024 Presidential horse race

 

Editors' Note: After one of the most eventful Presidential seasons in history, and with both party's nominees chosen, we thought it was high time to check in with the Spy's master political prognosticator David Bloviator to tell us what really matters this year: who's ahead and why.  After months of deeply-sourced reporting from his vantage points at Convention lounges and swing-state watering holes, David [That's Mr. Bloviator to you – DB] is ready once again to share his peerless insights with you, the reader desperately in search of objective, balanced coverage that can be found no place else, outside of every newspaper and media outlet.  We caught up with him at the Brats 'n Suds in the bellwether town of Kroenenwetter, Wisconsin. 

TMS:    Good afternoon, Mr. Bloviator.  What can you tell us about on the status of the Presidential campaigns?

DB: I can tell you I spotted a bottle of Chivas behind the bar.  Why don't you do something about it?  

TMS: Gladly.  Double Chivas-rocks for Mr. Bloviator.

The great seer calls the horserace.

DB: [inhales his drink]  Ah, now I can share with you what I have learned about the 2024 Presidential election.

TMS: Which is?

DB:  It is neck and neck.  It is too close to call.  It is tighter than a tick's duffel bag.  

TMS: That's not even an expression. 

DB:  Dan Rather used it in 1982.  Take it up with him. 

TMS: Tell us about the political landscape.   

DB: Replacing much too old Joe Biden with Kamala has brought the Democrats back into a race that they were on track to lose to the much younger and obviously much more vibrant Donald J. Trump. 

TMS: Speaking of which is there any media concern about the evidence of Trump's cognitive decline and mental state, given his increasingly incoherent rants at rallies and his unwillingness to sit down for an interview with media not controlled by right-wing plutocrats?  The media spent months telling us Joe Biden was too old.  Trump's 78, only three years younger.

DB: Of course not.  People are used to Trump's rambling style.  It makes him relatable. 

TMS: But Joe Biden's missteps made him unelectable.  Isn't there a double standard at work here?  

DB:  Speaking of doubles, I'll take another one.  [Gestures to bartender]

TMS: Let's break down the race.

DB:  It all comes down to the swing states.  This election will be decided by them.  

TMS: Isn't it a bad thing that the survival of American democracy will be decided by voters in only seven or eight states?  It's almost like most of us don't have a voice. 

Our pundit has been taking the pulse of the heartland

DB:  That's the genius of the Electoral College, son.  You have to admire the wisdom of the Founding Fathers. 

TMS: Why?  A bunch of white slaveholders who rigged the vote?   

DB: Don't you have any respect for the wisdom of our forefathers?  Without the Electoral College, we could face the tyranny of the majority. 

TMS: So it's better to endure the tyranny of the minority, as we did in 2000 and 2016?  Anyway, what's the situation in swing states?

DB: In the Blue Wall midwestern states, Harris has taken a slight lead, although her flip-flops on fracking could spell trouble in the must-win state of Pennsylvania. 

TMS: Isn't it common for candidates to moderate their message from primary to general election campaigns?  Isn't that what Trump is doing by backing away from his opposition to abortion?   

DB:  It's totally different.  Kamala is flip-flopping.  Trump is attempting to thread the needle on a difficult issue.

TMS: Can I ask why you refer to the Democratic candidate by her first name but the Republican candidate by his surname?  

DB:  Can I ask why my glass is empty?  [Gestures to bartender]-----

TMS: More generally, isn't the abortion issue breaking in favor of the Democrats, especially given the number of referenda to overturn state abortion bans?

DB:  It's just another example of identity politics.  The polls show that the economy is the most important issue.  

TMS: Isn't the economy in good shape?  Inflation has fallen, unemployment remains low, and the Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates. 

DB:  But people remember how much prices have gone up since 2020. 

TMS: You mean when everyone was cowering in their houses, terrified of a fatal pandemic?   

DB: Do you have any idea how much the price of bacon has gone up in the last four years? 

TMS: Do you?

DB: I can't waste time on trivia like that.  But I know that the average voter knows and he doesn't like it one bit. 

TMS: Speaking of bacon, aren't shrewd media pundits like you concerned about Trump's deranged rants, like the one where he connected the price of bacon to windmills?    

DB:  I'm more concerned about this empty glass. 

Trump's base remains firmly loyal, David says

TMS: Another double for Mr. Bloviator.  Now why isn't Trump's cognitive decline a legitimate issue in this campaign?

DB: You don't understand.  His base has heard him ramble like this for years and they are used to it.   

TMS: Isn't it the job of the media to point out when a candidate is manifestly unfit for office?    

DB:  Within the boundaries of objectivity and balance.  Why has Kamala done only one media interview since getting the nomination?  That's concerning to many observers.

TMS: Really?  Who?

DB:  Everyone who thinks they are entitled to an interview, obviously.   

TMS: Let's talk about the Vice Presidential nominees. What's your take on JD Vance?

DB:  Vance helps Trump reach out to a key constituency – sad single guys who live in their mom's basement.  Vance is their hero. 

TMS: And Tim Walz?   

DB: Clearly he's on the ticket because Democrats have a serious problem with white men.

TMS: You mean that white men are motivated by racism and misogyny?   

DB: That's because coastal elites are always demeaning them.

TMS: As racist and misogynist?   

DB: They're just fun-loving frat boys at heart who are worried about what immigrants are doing to this country.

TMS: What are immigrants doing to this country?   

What white male voters want

DB: Trump's voters have a justifiable concern about letting in millions of people into this country who don't speak English.

TMS: What concern?  It's not like those loser guys are going to pick strawberries and change bedpans in nursing homes themselves

DB: They just want to go back to the good old days.

TMS: The good old days of coat-hanger abortions and enforced segregation? 

DB: Now you're catching on.  

TMS: We're almost out of money, uh, time.  Let's step back and ask if this horse-race coverage isn't obscuring the real issue facing the country this year.

DB:  The real issue?  What on earth are you babbling about? 

TMS: I'm talking about the fact that the future of American democracy is on the ballot.  The Republican candidate has previously tried to overthrow the government and promised to act like a dictator if elected.  Isn't that terrifying?   

DB: He's only going to be a dictator on day one. 

TMS: How many days do you need to dismantle democracy?

DB: The pressure is on Kamala to explain what's at stake this year. 

TMS: But not on you and your fellow pundits, it seems.  [Pays tab] Thank you, Mr. Bloviator.